Posted by: mbconsulting | December 6, 2009

2009 Presidential Election – Sensitivity – We will GET what We WANT!

Sensitivity in 2009 Presidential Election

5 VOTES /each location may alter 1% FINAL RESULTS – Dramatic Competition!

We will GET What We WANT!

When two candidates are so close, as are Mr. Basescu and Mr. Geoana, small details would make the differences.

Let me explain why. In Romania, under the current situation, there are

– more than 18 million voters – officially recorded in Romania,

  • o 7,742,416 are in the rural areas;
  • 10,575,509 are in urban areas.

– more than 18000 places for voting:

  • 7,788 are placed in rural areas
  • 10265 are placed in urban areas.

 – cca. 1000 average voters per each location;

– around 100,000 persons direct involved in the election process (persons that are distributing bulletins and stamps, presidents and vice-presidents of the local commission for election)

Based on my research, there are three important categories of voters:

– Ones that are strongly support of Ms. Basescu. Between first and second round they did not change their opinions and they represent around 30% from the previous participants and they are going to vote;

– Others that are strong supporters of Mr. Geoana and between first and second round they did not change their opinion and they represent around 30% from the previous voters and they are going to vote ;

– The voters attached to Mr. Crin Antonescu/PNL, 20% from the previous participants that are separated in three important layers:

  • 30% of voters attached to them will vote for Mr. Basescu; 
  •  30% of them will vote for Mr. Geoana;
  • 30% of them will cancelled their votes – this will be easy to check at the end of the election;

And 10% of them are not going to vote.

Now, assuming: participation is around 50%, the sensitivity analysis of election in 2009 Presidential Election is:

  • Scenarios 1: ONLY 5 VOTES per each location may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS;
  • Scenarios 2: ONLY 21 VOTES per each rural location may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS;
  • Scenarios 3: ONLY 13 VOTES/location with > 1000 voters may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS.

Assuming: participation at this event is around 40%, the sensitivity analysis of election in 2009 Presidential Election is:

  • Scenarios 1: ONLY 4 VOTES per each location may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS;
  • Scenarios 2: ONLY 17 VOTES per each rural location may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS;
  • Scenarios 3: ONLY 10 VOTES/location with > 1000 voters may CHANGE with 1% the FINAL RESULTS,

How are the persons in charge to supervise the election process?

 – cca. 100,000 persons from the local commissions – are these persons capable to undertake their own interests in the favor of correctness when there is such a big pressure coming from the members of the parties, and maybe other forces?

That’s hope that the answer will be “Yes, they correctly supervised the elections”, but it is so easy to alter 5 votes per each location for 1% more in final results in favor of your own candidate…

– the representatives of the parties;

– other institution authorized for this propose.

I am not preparing for frauds, I relay on the system, even if it is not perfect, but I wanted to underline how sensitive is this process NOW.

Each non-conformity during the election process, even if there is a relatively high participation on election, may bring significant influences in the favor of one or other candidate.

 Taking into consideration the above mentioned figures, calculated based on official information, it is easily to understand why the Ministry of Interior Affairs in Romania was such a big challenge for PSD and in the last minute PSD, in spite of a different position from the Supreme Court, obtained from Bucharest Court of Appeals to suspend Mr. Blaga, the interim Minister of Interior Affairs.

So, this unique campaign where the two candidates are very, very close and it seems that Romanians could not separate them. From my perspective, there is a big gap/ final cut/ between them:

– Mr. Geoana is supported by very active former communists represented by Ion Iliescu, Victor Hrebenciuc;

– Mr. Basescu, is supported by progressive persons such as Mr. Theodor Stolojan, former Prime- Minister with work experience at World Bank, Mr. Valeriu Stoica, former Minister of Justice, an active promoter of liberalism.

So, going to vote and We will GET what we will want!

Write to you tomorrow, with more info.

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Responses

  1. Great idea, but will this work over the long run?

    • As you could notice, and if not please let me introduce, the answer is yes and no.

  2. Great idea, but will this work over the long run?

    • See the answer above. Thanks for let me know what you thought.

  3. Lots of of people talk about this issue but you wrote down really true words!!

    • Thank you for your comments.

      Sometimes is not enough to talk, there is a need for more, there is a need for questions, actions and changes, if these are in our hands.

      The democracy is a play in which each person/actor or actress/ may have a role, but really depend on that person if she/he would take the courage to demand and to act for.

      I believe in democracy, in a true and fair world, even when things are not perfect, but may be improved by us. There is a reason to ask and fight for them. What do you think about?


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