Posted by: mbconsulting | June 4, 2010

How to change the destiny – Smolensk, 101 Polish Air Force

Orzeł Wojsk Lotniczych RP

Image via Wikipedia

I read the official notes issued by the Investigation Commission on flight 101 Polish Air Force that crashed near by Smolensk, on April 10, 2010, where President Kaczyński and other 95 persons died. To make your own impression, please go the section: Brief Official Notes – Investigation Committee.

Near Katyn, at Smolensk, on that day,the history could be written in another way if:

– the flight would take off at 8:30, as was initial announced, or at least at 9:00, as it was rescheduled. In fact the airplane took off at 9:27, local time a delay for about 1 hour, period of time in which weather conditions were deteriorated at Smolensk.

– the weather forecast could be received.
At the beginning of the flight there was no weather forecast for the final airport;

– the weather could be described/measured more accurate.
In fact the pilots were announced that visibility was 400 m., but the Polish pilot of IAK-40 that 1, 5 hour arrived before estimated 200 m visibility. There were to many approximations in this area. The weather was reported that was dramatically changed in less than 1 hour. Another plain, Russian aircraft, tried 30 min. before and missed the landing at Smolensk and decided for an alternative airport. In this case there were also mentioned two missed calls.

– the pilots could shut the door of their cockpit.
Somebody was permanently presented in the crew cabin and, more than this, the crew cabin’s door was reported to be opened as the noise coming from passengers was noticed during the cabin recordings.;

– the aircraft height could be higher 15 meters, on the level of the runway threshold for path of landing.

I could have more confidence if the lighting system from the airport runway were seriously checked and in a good conditions, because the checking was performed with 3 hour before accident, normal procedure, but the next one checking was a little bit too late, on April 11, 2010, coming with the explanation that were a lot of activities on Smolensk…

Another uncertain element, from my personal point of view, is regarding to the acceleration that provoked the death: as it is mentioned in the report there was a terrible acceleration 100g, approx. 1000 m/s2, that made practically impossible surviving of any person. This acceleration is far too big for my estimations…

Of course, my personal opinions are not relevant, only the Committee report will be taken into consideration by ICAO, but I am alive person and meanwhile try to think about it.

For more information go to Section: Brief Official Notes – Investigation Committee.

Brief Official Notes – Investigation Committee.

May 19, 2010
Progress and preliminary results of the investigation the crash of the Tu-154 aircraft registration number 101 of the Republic of Poland

Chairman of the Interstate Aviation Committee, TG Anodina.

Today, the Interstate Aviation Committee is ready to inform on the preliminary results of the Technical Commission in connection with the terrible tragedy which has shocked not only to Poland and Russia, but the whole world.
Confidently declare that all the circumstances and causes of the disaster will be set objectively and openly. The reason for this is that the Government of Russia and Poland have decided to investigate the crash of the Tu-154 Defense of Poland, who was flying on an international route with passengers on board, in accordance with international rules of the Chicago Convention, ratified by 190 states, including Russia and Poland.
To implement the provisions of the Convention on the independence of the investigation it is important that the Investigation is an international organization, which is guided by the norms of international law and has extensive experience in international investigations in 53 countries worldwide.
IAC is a member of the International Organization of independent investigative bodies.
We appreciate that from the very beginning of the investigation, we have the support of colleagues from the U.S., the European Union states that have declared that no doubt the independence, objectivity and professionalism of our Commission.
The Technical Commission IAC, which includes specialists from the Ministry of Defense of Russia, works closely with a large group of Polish military and civilian experts, headed by the Commissioner of the Government of Poland, Mr. Klich.
From the first day of Polish specialists involved in all aspects of the investigation, had and have access to all necessary material, as at the scene and the decoding of “black boxes”.
Professional and legal misunderstandings there.
To investigate to attract the best flight and technical specialists, research institutions and industry in Russia, Poland and the USA.
A month after the disaster has been done historically by a large international practice, the amount of work.
Together completed the most difficult phase of field investigation, including aerial photography, mapping, determination of the exact flight path and time of the disaster, laying open the plane in real. All the surviving fragments of the aircraft and its equipment, together with the Polish side zaaktirovany and are in a secure place.
Completed decoding of flight recorders, one of which is completely similar emergency, transcribed in Poland. Deciphered terrestrial means of objective control, including negotiations Manager. The originals of records recorders are Mac in a safe, sealed by both parties. All materials together documented.
Completes the analysis of data on the control of all the overflight of the airfield, including radio equipment landing conducted by the Technical Commission, as well as other materials obtained by decoding means of objective control.
Together completed the decoding of negotiations crew members, the identification of their voices, conducted by Polish pilots. The work was complicated by high noise emissions, including those due to the open door in the cockpit. To clear the record of the noise is specifically available in the MAC hardware with unique software. Voices crew clearly identified.
Summer subcommittee studied the documentation on training and actions of the crew.
In the laboratory of the Research Center in the U.S. with the participation of specialists IAC and Poland with the participation of the National Committee for Transport Safety and the Federal Aviation Administration (NTSB and FAA) in the framework of our bilateral agreement with the United States held decryption information system, the prevention of collisions with the ground TAWS and satellite navigation system GNSS . Experts have begun to analyze the results.
Technical Commission clearly established – the terrorist attack, explosion, fire on board, failure of aircraft in flight was not. Engines worked until the collision with the earth.
The airfield and its facilities are suitable to receive the Sun different classes, including the Yak 40 and Tu-154.
TAWS system has been included, able to work and passed the necessary information to the crew. Navigation system GNSS was also included and efficient.
The crew receives timely information on meteoobstanovke and emergency airfields from dispatching centers of Minsk, Smolensk airport “North”, as well as the crew of the Yak-40 Poland’s Defense Ministry, which landed at the airport for about 1.5 hours before the accident.
Found that in the cabin were persons not members of the crew. Voice of a clearly identified, the other (or others) are subject to an additional identification of the Polish side. It is important for the investigation.
Together with the Polish specialists prepared and submitted to the Commissioner of Poland operational recommendations to improve safety. During a visit to the MAC, Minister of National Defence, Mr. B. Klich, Minister of Internal Affairs – Chairman of the Governmental Commission of Poland, Mr. E. Miller in detail informed of the commission. They listened to recordings of negotiations of the crew.
MAC regularly informs the public about the investigation, and today we present a press release about the established facts and circumstances of the accident.
Executed volume of works to investigate the disaster, the high professionalism of the Technical Commission and involved experts, well-oiled teamwork give confidence that the cause of the disaster will be established unequivocally in the shortest time possible without compromising quality. Results will be opened and made known to public. At the conclusion of the Commission’s final report and all investigation materials will be transmitted to the State Commission of Russia and Poland and the Attorney-General of both countries.
Recommendations will be formulated that such tragedies are not repeated.
We are well aware that it is our duty to the memory of the victims and the responsibility of the international community.

Chairman of the Technical Commission IAC Morozov

On the established facts and circumstances of the crash of the Tu-154

Presents the material is factual information obtained during the investigation of technical Committee IAC with the Authorized Representative of the Republic of Poland and a large group of Polish experts from various sources, including ground and airborne means of objective control, as well as flight and maintenance documentation. In case of new instruments and analysis of this material will be refined. This material and its parts is not an analysis of the causes of the accident, was not directed at establishing the proportion of someone’s guilt or responsibility and should not be interpreted as such. For readability established facts gathered in groups. All timestamps are given in conjunction with the local time of Smolensk, which coincides with Moscow. Time lags in Warsaw for two hours.

Group 1: The overall level of flight operations and training of crew members of the Tu-154M in the 36th Regiment Air Force Republic of Poland

a. The unit does not contain detailed training program for flight crews. Regular periodic training on the simulator to practice skills of interaction and technology of the crew, including the special cases in flight, not carried out;
b. The unit is no manual interaction and technology of the crew members for the 4-member crew. Flights are carried out directly using the Aeroplane Flight Manual for aircraft, designed for minimum crew, ie 3 persons (without a mate).

Group 2 Formation of the crew and its preparation for flight 04/10/2010.

a. The crew was formed a few days before the flight in FAC, copilot, navigator and flight engineer. The total flying time and an independent attack on the Tu-154M in this position for the FAC was: total – approximately 3480 hours, the Tu-154 – about 530 hours, the co-pilot: general – 1900 hours, the Tu-154 – 160 hours; navigator: general – 1070 hours, the Tu-154M – 30 hours flight engineer: Total – 290 hours, the Tu-154 – 235 hours.
b. During the preflight training the crew received a painting of weather data, which included the actual weather and forecast for the aerodrome of departure, emergency airfields, as well as weather forecast along the flight route. The actual weather and forecast for the destination aerodrome Smolensk “Northern” crew did not.
c. Current aeronautical data for the destination aerodrome Smolensk “North”, including the existing notes, the crew did not.

Unit 3 Preparing the aircraft for flight

a. The plane before the flight was completely defective. Filling fuel is about 19 tons, which was enough for the flight on the specified route taking into account the selected alternate aerodromes. An analysis of fuel showed that the physical and chemical indicators of the quality of samples of fuel in general, no comments. Takeoff weight and center of gravity do not exceed the Aeroplane Flight Manual limitation.
b. The plane was equipped with an early warning system approach land type TAWS and the flight management system UNS-1D (FMS). Systems TAWS and FMS has been included and are efficient.

Group 4 Preparation airport for the flight

a. March 16, 2010 at the airfield Smolensk “North” by a special commission of Russian experts was carried out technical flight to determine the readiness of the airfield to receive the Tu-154 and Tu-134. According to the results of work was generally concluded that the aerodrome is suitable to receive the above types of aircraft with regard to a number of recommendations, including the proper state radio, and lighting equipment to the course of landing 259 of .
b. March 25, 2010 was conducted flight testing of all airport facilities and systems. The audit was the general conclusion that the parameters and the accuracy of PAR, the far and near ndb with markers, lighting, and radio stations comply with the state aviation in Russia and are suitable for flying. Means to perform automatic or-director approach the aerodrome Smolensk “North” has not.
c. April 5, 2010 was approved by the technical inspection airfield Smolensk “North” to receive the special flights. The general conclusion: The airfield is ready to receive special flights during a minimum of weather. Table set minimum weather MKpos 259 on Sun and category “B” and “D” (Yak-40 and Tu-154) provides for the setting with a minimum of weather 100h1000 meters.
d. April 10, 2010 as reported by a specialist in the period from 7.00 to. 8.00 hour., during the preflight inspection of lighting equipment, it has been duly and operational. Immediately after the Tu-154 inspect the lighting equipment has not been possible due to high-intensity operations until 5.00. April 11, 2010 comment on the lighting equipment from the crew flew to the airfield aircraft 10 and 11 April in a technical commission has been received.

Group 5 Implementation of flight until the moment are the responsibility of the aerodrome Smolensk “Northern”

a. Departure from Warsaw was executed at 9:27, with a delay of 27 minutes to the revised departure time (9:00). The original flight was planned for 08:30.
b. The flight passed through the territory of three countries: Poland, Belarus and Russia. Flight level of about 10000 meters. Radio communication with dispatchers in Minsk and Moscow was conducted in English, with the airfield manager Smolensk “North” – in Russian.

Group 6 to inform the crew about the weather at the airport of destination worse set minimum

a. During the flight, the crew had repeatedly informed the managers of Minsk, Smolensk, and the crew of the Yak-40 Polish Air Force, carried out the landing at the airport at 9:15, which is about 1h 30min before the disaster:
– Approximately 27 minutes before the crash, the plane crossed in reducing the height of 7500 meters, the Minsk-Control Manager informed the crew that the airport of destination fog, visibility 400 meters.
After the connection with the aerodrome Smolensk “Northern” double crew was informed that the airfield fog, visibility 400 meters, the conditions for the reception there.
– At the same time (approximately 16 minutes before the disaster) from the crew of the Yak-40 Republic of Poland, the crew of the Tu-154 has received information about the visibility of 400 meters and a vertical visibility of 50 meters.
– Approximately 11 minutes before the crash the crew of the Yak-40 informed that the crew of the Russian Il-76 made two call and went to the alternate.
For 4 minutes before the crash crew Yak-40 informed that he appreciates the visibility of both the 200 meters.

Group 7 Execution of flight from the moment are the responsibility of the aerodrome Smolensk “North” before the reduction of glide path

a. At the request of the crew carried out their “trial” approach to decision height (100 meters).
b. In solving the crew of the third turn informed the dispatcher that from 100 meters to be ready to care for the second round.

Group 8 Exit on landing a direct and a decrease in the glide path

a. Reduction of glide path passed automatic pilot in the longitudinal and lateral channels, as well as with the included automatic traction. Turning off the autopilot in the longitudinal channel and automatic traction occurred while trying to overshoot a 5 and 4 seconds respectively before the collision with an obstacle (tree), which led to the beginning of the destruction of aircraft structure. Turning off the autopilot in the lateral channel occurred at the time of the third collision with obstacles, which led to the beginning of the destruction of the structure.
b. The first warning system TAWS type PULL UP (Pull UP) was for 18 seconds before the collision with an obstacle, which led to the beginning of the destruction of aircraft structure. Before this double-formed message type TERRAIN AHEAD (AHEAD OF THE EARTH).
c. The first collision of aircraft with an obstacle occurred at a distance of about 1100 meters from the runway to the left of course call for about 40 meters. In view of the terrain (ravine) and tree height, aircraft height was below the level of the runway threshold 15 meters.
d. The third clash left wing, leading to early destruction of aircraft structure, with a birch trunk diameter of 30-40 cm occurred at a distance of 260 meters from the point of first contact to the left of the extended axis of the strip of 80 meters.
e. Time elapsed from the beginning of destruction aircraft structure to the complete destruction of the aircraft fuselage structures for collision with the ground in an inverted position, was about 5-6 seconds. The final destruction of the aircraft occurred at 10 o’clock 41 minutes 06 seconds.
f. Medical trasologicheskie studies have shown that at the time of the destruction of aircraft structure, in an inverted position, the passengers acted acceleration with a value of about 100 g. To survive in this incident was not possible.

Group 9 rescue

a. After about 13 minutes after the incident by the Department of Internal Affairs of the Smolensk region and the Federal Security Service was billed cordoned off the crash site within a radius of 500 meters, 180 employees, 16 pieces of equipment.
b. The emerging small open burning has been eliminated in 18 minutes after the incident firefighters arrived calculations.

Group 10 Summary of research aircraft

a. Results of the engineering subcommittee confirmed that the failures of the aircraft, engines and systems have been discovered. The damage an aircraft in the air, until the moment of collision of aircraft with obstacles, was not.

Group of 11 outlined the basic work of the Commission of Inquiry

a. Complete study information TAWS and FMS, the results, if necessary, be corrected flight path.
b. Study materials forensic crew members.
c. With the use of independent flight experts to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the actions of the crew, professional service mission control and flight simulation based on actual weather conditions and data control overflight radio equipment.
d. Preparation of the draft final report.

The Technical Commission IAC has developed operational guidelines and in accordance with paragraph 6.8 of Annex 13 to the Chicago Convention, referred them to the Commissioner President of the Republic of Poland.

May 21, 2010

IAC officially declares:
We affirm the openness of the investigation.
The Technical Commission IAC carries out its work in full accordance with international standards of ICAO, in which investigations are conducted in order to establish the circumstances and causes of the disaster and is not intended to establish someone’s guilt or liability. The papers presented at a press conference, can not and should not be interpreted in this way.
ICAO regulations, which we follow, is not allowed disclosure of persons involved in the accident.
At a press conference on May 19 was not named any specific names, do not distribute photos of the victims, taking into account the principle of moral and ethical standards for the relatives of the victims. Photos of the victims in the MAC available.
IAC was sympathetic to the feelings of the public, but, realizing our full responsibility, believes that no one should affect the integrity and objectivity of the investigation.
Identified during the investigation the facts and circumstances surrounding the crash published on the website of the MAC.
After the press conference on May 19 Correspondent 24 television stations and news agencies attended the MAC lab for processing and interpretation of parametric and audio information on-board and ground-based objective control, familiar with the equipment and related technologies.

May 31, 2010
31 May 2010. in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding on the issue of transfer of the Polish side records flight data recorders of the Tu-154M aircraft registration number 101 of the Republic of Poland, crashed on April 10 2010. in the region of Smolensk.

31 May 2010. in the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) in the presence of representatives of both sides, the Investigative Committee of the General Procuracy of the Russian Federation, the Chief Military Procurator of the Russian Federation, the Chief Military Procurator of the Republic of Poland made up and send authentic copies of records flight data recorders and transcription talks crew members the Minister of Internal Affairs and administration of the Republic of Poland, Mr. Jerzy Miller.
In IAC the following work:
– Opening the sealed representatives of the IAC and the Chief Military Prosecutor of the Republic of Poland safe with the original records flight data recorders (so-called black boxes) Tu-154M № 101.
– Copy data from a magnetic tape recorder onboard emergency parametric MSRP-64M-6, an audio tape recorder emergency MARS-BM; tape drive COP-13 BAF-1-1-board operational recorder.
– Transfer of representatives of the Republic of Poland transcription negotiations crew of TU-154M number 101 and copies of CDs with recordings of authentic information.
– The return of the original records flight data recorders in a safe and joint sealing of safe deposit boxes.
Verifying the authenticity of copies of the originals made by the recorder records, transfer of copies and transcriptions of negotiations in the cockpit designed the protocol signed by both parties and the IAC.
In the process of transferring copies of records flight data recorders and transcription talks crew members took part deputy foreign ministers of Russia and Poland, Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to Russia and other members of the Polish delegation.

Hope to find the peace for all of us,



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